 As we start a new year, I am often asked where home prices are headed.  While I don’t have a crystal ball, I study the market trends and activity closely.  Many aspects affect home prices, such as the overall economy’s health, inventory levels (supply & demand), and interest rates.  Seasonality is also a pattern I pay close attention to, and we are headed into the time of year when we see most of the annual price growth happen.  As we prepare for the Spring market, I have pulled some data that shows the seasonal patterns and the impact interest rates have had on prices, and long-term equity growth.
As we start a new year, I am often asked where home prices are headed.  While I don’t have a crystal ball, I study the market trends and activity closely.  Many aspects affect home prices, such as the overall economy’s health, inventory levels (supply & demand), and interest rates.  Seasonality is also a pattern I pay close attention to, and we are headed into the time of year when we see most of the annual price growth happen.  As we prepare for the Spring market, I have pulled some data that shows the seasonal patterns and the impact interest rates have had on prices, and long-term equity growth.
First, before we look forward, we must look back to understand the relationship between rates and prices. We went on a long run of rates being below 5% from 2010 to mid-2022, outside of the second half of 2018. Price growth was consistent after the recovery from the Great Recession in 2012 to 2018 and, in some cases, incredibly rapid. When the increase in interest rates happened in 2018, along with the proposed Seattle Head Tax, we saw a correction in home prices. It took the market about 15 months to recover from that correction.
Then, we hit the pandemic-fueled market of 2020-2022, where price growth was off the charts. During that time, work-from-home moves flooded the suburbs and rural markets, early retirements and relocations to other states created movement, and interest rates under 3% drove prices up by double digits. At the beginning of 2022, rates started to creep up to counter inflation and increased by 2 points in four months, landing at 5.5% in May 2022. This, like 2018, forced a correction in prices. This correction took 24 months to recover, with prices regaining their May 2022 peak in May 2024.

This recovery all happened amidst interest rates peaking at 7.91% in Oct 2023 and never going under 6% the entire time. Rates have hovered from 6.75%-7.25% over the last year, outside of a small window in the Fall when they were in the mid-6%. This illustrates that the market has become accustomed to the new normal of interest rates, and prices have been strong and stable. Tight inventory has helped bolster price stability and growth with limited supply to fuel demand.
If you look at the recovery from May 2022 to May 2024, you must also understand the seasonality of the market. This pattern has rung true for decades and has much to do with inventory levels. We typically start the new year with the lowest amount of available homes for sale due to the holiday slow down, short, dark days, and many families timing their moves around the school year. Once the new year starts, would-be buyers hit the market with their housing goals blowing wind into their sails.
 
 
This new demand is coupled with tight inventory, and the price growth for the year starts to take shape via price escalations via multiple offers. This becomes commonplace in Q1, and we begin to see inventory catch up in Q2 when the days are longer, the flowers are in bloom, and we are a little closer to the opening of summer break for schools, creating a less disruptive move. Despite the correction in 2022 and rates stubbornly remaining in the 6-7% range, sellers have realized incredible gains, and buyers who have made purchases have secured their trajectory of building wealth through owning real estate.
Even though price growth is more accelerated in the first half of the year, the deceleration of price growth sits on the shoulders of the gains in Q1 & 2, ultimately leaving prices higher year-over-year. This is a pattern we have seen for some time, and we are already starting to see it unfold in 2025. Month-to-date prices are up in February 2025 over January 2025 by 5% in King County and 1% in Snohomish County. This pattern can guide one’s timing of the market, and so can life. As much as hitting the perfect week when there is less competition and rates drop may feel like hitting your bet at the roulette table, making a move is much more nuanced than that. The timing of a move needs to work with the demands of life, and the good news is the year-over-year gains are positive regardless.
As we head into the spring market for 2025, we anticipate additional price growth from where we are now and following the trend of prices peaking in late Spring. We should regain and most likely eclipse the peak prices we saw in 2024. To expand this to the bigger picture, let me share some fun facts about long-term price growth and homeowner equity with you. This is especially important as real estate is a long-term investment, the four walls where you create your life, and not meant to be a lucky bet on black.
Check out the charts below that show how far prices have come over the last ten years! In King County, the January median price is up 74% since 2016 and up 36% since 2020. In Snohomish County, the January median price is up 103% since 2016 and up 51% since 2020. Equity levels are high across our region, with over 50% of homeowners having 50% equity or more. Many homeowners are in the fortunate position to reposition their equity into a home that is a better fit for their lifestyle if they are experiencing life changes such as a change in family size, job change, or a financial shift.
 
 
I hope this look back to look forward instills confidence in our real estate market and home values. If a move is in your future, you will prosper well. Please reach out if you or someone you know is considering a move, whether it is a purchase, sale, or both. I can help apply these facts and figures to your specific market area and help chart a plan according to the market conditions and your goals. It is always my goal to help educate my clients and empower them with the information to make well-informed, strong decisions.

In 2024, the Windermere Foundation raised just over $3.5M and served 583 organizations. Since its inception in 1989, they have raised over $56M! The Foundation was created to help give back to our communities and focused on assisting homeless and low-income families and children. Each Windermere agent participates by donating a portion of each commission earned, and additional fundraising is done annually by agents and offices. Local chapters vet organizations aligning with the Foundation’s mission, and funds are responsibly disbursed.
Offices also take on projects to help give back throughout the year. Our office consistently raises funds and collects food for the Volunteers of America (VOA) Food Banks of Snohomish County, and we hold three food drives a year. We understand that food insecurity is a relevant need, especially amid high inflation. Our next food drive is on Saturday, April 19th, and we will be combining it with our Paper Shredding Event that will be held at our office from 10 am to 2 pm. If you have some paper to shred, please stop by and bring some food or a cash donation to benefit the food banks managed by VOA.
We also work with Washington Kids in Transition (WKT) and organize a Christmas-giving tree that benefits two dozen youths in the Edmonds and Everett School Districts. WKT has also started a new mentorship program that helps homeless teens learn critical life skills, such as managing finances and nutrition. The program also organizes outings and events under the moniker of the Friendship Club that give these teens the opportunity to build relationships and have experiences that would not be available to them like attending a play or a ball game. These giving projects are near and dear to our hearts, and we are proud to align with these reputable organizations that do such meaningful work.
 
           
           On January 22, my office hosted renowned economist and housing market specialist
On January 22, my office hosted renowned economist and housing market specialist  The
The  There is no sign of a recession. The balance of inflation, rates, and the overall health of the economy has created a soft landing that avoided a recession. In fact, GDP is up by 2% and the textbook definition of a recession is when the GDP decreases over two successive quarters.
There is no sign of a recession. The balance of inflation, rates, and the overall health of the economy has created a soft landing that avoided a recession. In fact, GDP is up by 2% and the textbook definition of a recession is when the GDP decreases over two successive quarters. ✅ GREATER SEATTLE AREA JOB MARKET:
✅ GREATER SEATTLE AREA JOB MARKET:
 ✅ GREATER SEATTLE HOUSING MARKET:
✅ GREATER SEATTLE HOUSING MARKET: Mortgage rates will modestly decrease throughout 2025 and should end up in the low 6%. The biggest headwind is deficit spending now that inflation has settled. This spending will keep the 10-year treasury high, which will have a direct impact on mortgage rates. These are two key factors to watch if you’re waiting for mortgage rates to drop significantly.
Mortgage rates will modestly decrease throughout 2025 and should end up in the low 6%. The biggest headwind is deficit spending now that inflation has settled. This spending will keep the 10-year treasury high, which will have a direct impact on mortgage rates. These are two key factors to watch if you’re waiting for mortgage rates to drop significantly. Prices increased in King and Snohomish counties in 2024 and are expected to grow again in 2025 despite stubborn mortgage rates. In King County, inventory was up by 10%, sales were up 12%, and the median price was up 10.7% year-over-year. Price growth is predicted to increase by 4% in 2025, which is higher than the historical national annual average. In Snohomish County, inventory was up by 17%, sales were up 8%, and the median price was up 9.9% year-over-year. Price growth is predicted to increase by 5% in 2025.
Prices increased in King and Snohomish counties in 2024 and are expected to grow again in 2025 despite stubborn mortgage rates. In King County, inventory was up by 10%, sales were up 12%, and the median price was up 10.7% year-over-year. Price growth is predicted to increase by 4% in 2025, which is higher than the historical national annual average. In Snohomish County, inventory was up by 17%, sales were up 8%, and the median price was up 9.9% year-over-year. Price growth is predicted to increase by 5% in 2025.
 Affordability is the biggest challenge. With price growth steady coupled with higher interest rates, monthly payments have grown faster than incomes. This has put first-time homebuyers at a disadvantage in core job center locations. Down payment assistance (gift funds) from family and/or high-paying salaries in the tech, biotech, and big corporate companies have differentiated the ability of some first-time homebuyers compared to others with limited down payment funds and higher debt-to-income ratios.
Affordability is the biggest challenge. With price growth steady coupled with higher interest rates, monthly payments have grown faster than incomes. This has put first-time homebuyers at a disadvantage in core job center locations. Down payment assistance (gift funds) from family and/or high-paying salaries in the tech, biotech, and big corporate companies have differentiated the ability of some first-time homebuyers compared to others with limited down payment funds and higher debt-to-income ratios. This is certainly a lot to unpack as we head into 2025. Stay tuned for even more insights on what we learned from Matthew in my next newsletter. In the meantime, I am here to encourage you and point out that this is a lot of good news. We look forward to more moderate growth in 2025, which is good. Severe increases are not healthy. While we are combating an affordability crisis, the steady wave of moderation on top of incredibly high equity levels should play out to create a stable and fruitful 2025 real estate market.
This is certainly a lot to unpack as we head into 2025. Stay tuned for even more insights on what we learned from Matthew in my next newsletter. In the meantime, I am here to encourage you and point out that this is a lot of good news. We look forward to more moderate growth in 2025, which is good. Severe increases are not healthy. While we are combating an affordability crisis, the steady wave of moderation on top of incredibly high equity levels should play out to create a stable and fruitful 2025 real estate market.
 
           As we head into the holidays and mark the final stretch of the year, I wanted to report on the 2024 real estate market and where we might be headed in 2025. To set the stage, I must mention the ride that it has been over the last five years. Since 2019, we have experienced some key market factors that have influenced market activity and prices.
As we head into the holidays and mark the final stretch of the year, I wanted to report on the 2024 real estate market and where we might be headed in 2025. To set the stage, I must mention the ride that it has been over the last five years. Since 2019, we have experienced some key market factors that have influenced market activity and prices. After reviewing the last 10 years of closed sales, we are down about 25% YTD in King County and 30% in Snohomish County from a normal average closed sales rate. This has remained stubborn due to the lock-in effect that the previous low rates have created. For example, many homeowners who purchased or re-financed to obtain a rate of 3-4% are holding tight to their monthly payments. This has caused many people to stay in homes that don’t ideally fit their lifestyle due to wanting to keep the monthly payment and overall affordability.
After reviewing the last 10 years of closed sales, we are down about 25% YTD in King County and 30% in Snohomish County from a normal average closed sales rate. This has remained stubborn due to the lock-in effect that the previous low rates have created. For example, many homeowners who purchased or re-financed to obtain a rate of 3-4% are holding tight to their monthly payments. This has caused many people to stay in homes that don’t ideally fit their lifestyle due to wanting to keep the monthly payment and overall affordability. Another aspect to point out is the trends we typically see in post-election years. Historical data indicates increased closed sales, lower interest rates, and price growth. This data, coupled with pent-up seller demand and gradually decreasing interest rates, should drive sales to increase slightly and prices to appreciate and remain stable.  Most homeowners are sitting on well-established equity, enabling them to make fluid moves.
Another aspect to point out is the trends we typically see in post-election years. Historical data indicates increased closed sales, lower interest rates, and price growth. This data, coupled with pent-up seller demand and gradually decreasing interest rates, should drive sales to increase slightly and prices to appreciate and remain stable.  Most homeowners are sitting on well-established equity, enabling them to make fluid moves. If you or someone you know is considering buying, selling, or both, now is a great time to reach out. Executing a purchase and/or sale and a move takes strategic planning to achieve the best outcome. I love helping my clients identify their goals, curate a detailed list of items to create the ideal results, and help guide the process to a successful finish. A new year brings a fresh start, and why not start to verbalize, visualize, and start your planning now, whether your goals are immediate or in the distant future? Please use me as your real estate resource, as my goal is to be your trusted advisor rooted in data and market education.
 If you or someone you know is considering buying, selling, or both, now is a great time to reach out. Executing a purchase and/or sale and a move takes strategic planning to achieve the best outcome. I love helping my clients identify their goals, curate a detailed list of items to create the ideal results, and help guide the process to a successful finish. A new year brings a fresh start, and why not start to verbalize, visualize, and start your planning now, whether your goals are immediate or in the distant future? Please use me as your real estate resource, as my goal is to be your trusted advisor rooted in data and market education.
 
          


 
          



 cookies. Think of it as a delectable combo of shortbread and a Snickerdoodle.
 cookies. Think of it as a delectable combo of shortbread and a Snickerdoodle. 
          
 
          





 
          

 is a desire for rates to come down even further. The good news is that they are predicted to continue this gradual decline. Where I am concerned is a decrease in selection. If we look at seasonality, it is common for inventory to be low in the first half of the year, especially in Q1 (see the King & Snohomish graphs above). If rates continue their slide and fewer new listings come to market, buyers will find themselves duking it out in 2025. Right now, while there are multiple offers on some properties, there are more properties that are being negotiated into contracts with one buyer.
 is a desire for rates to come down even further. The good news is that they are predicted to continue this gradual decline. Where I am concerned is a decrease in selection. If we look at seasonality, it is common for inventory to be low in the first half of the year, especially in Q1 (see the King & Snohomish graphs above). If rates continue their slide and fewer new listings come to market, buyers will find themselves duking it out in 2025. Right now, while there are multiple offers on some properties, there are more properties that are being negotiated into contracts with one buyer. History shows that post-election year markets are brisk with sales and experience price growth and rate decreases. I am paying attention to key indicators such as inflation figures, unemployment measurements, the gap between the 10-year treasury yield and mortgage rates, and our local market conditions in order to provide my clients with the most accurate and up-to-date information to empower strong decisions.
 History shows that post-election year markets are brisk with sales and experience price growth and rate decreases. I am paying attention to key indicators such as inflation figures, unemployment measurements, the gap between the 10-year treasury yield and mortgage rates, and our local market conditions in order to provide my clients with the most accurate and up-to-date information to empower strong decisions. 
          




 Since we are neighbors, I thought it would be fun for you to know a little bit more about me personally! Our family moved to Hummingbird Hills (on Viewmoor Place, specifically) in the spring of 2006. We moved from Ballard to be closer to family and new friends with children that were the same age as ours. At the time, our daughter Anna was 4
Since we are neighbors, I thought it would be fun for you to know a little bit more about me personally! Our family moved to Hummingbird Hills (on Viewmoor Place, specifically) in the spring of 2006. We moved from Ballard to be closer to family and new friends with children that were the same age as ours. At the time, our daughter Anna was 4
 
          

